Outcome regions
Branching paths to futures
Sankey view from joint MC runs — ribbon width = share of worlds, not independent scenario weights.
Event impact on outcomes
P(region | event) lift vs P(region | ¬event) — association from joint MC, not causal proof.
Capability spine course (median fire dates)
How far the world climbs the AI-2027 ladder by deadline — stochastic per run, aggregated here.
Sample simulation courses
Representative runs by outcome region — spine milestones + key plot events → terminal.